Welcome to our latest edition of the London Residential Development Sales and Consultancy Newsletter. In this edition we are delighted to introduce you to our Shared Ownership team, who have shown their adaptability in the short video below. We hope you enjoy! You can also find out more about Lucy Chitty, Head of Shared Ownership on our interview on the ‘Meet the Team’ tab. Our Private Office have recently launched their new website, and featuring LRD’s Ned Baring we bring you the latest on our Res Dev News tab. Our Consultancy team have been ‘in conversation with’ CyclingScore this edition, delving into why cycling has grown so much in popularity around the UK, plus how this relates to the new build market. It’s no longer enough to simply provide cycle parking. Read the full interview on our Consultancy Hub. We hope you enjoy this edition and as always if we can help you in any way please do get in touch.
Click below to view the new Autumn Winter Edition of our 2020 property portfolio. Featuring our world class properties across the capital, this portfolio showcases the full spectrum of new homes currently for sale with us.
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Our new Spotlight publication, published on the 22nd April is given over wholly to the issue of carbon in property. The Conference of the Parties (COP26), which is to take place in Glasgow in November this year, is the next milestone event for the world to address the challenge of climate change. With the built environment the source of 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions, it is clear that this issue increasingly represents the pre-eminent item on the agenda for all of us in the sector.
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Our latest Client and Applicant survey shows which features of a property are ranked as most important. Compared to before the pandemic, access to open space and being closer to family are rating as higher priorities, while being close to a station or workplace has become a lower priority. Our findings suggest that the lockdown has had some permanent impact on what people look for in a home. For more, see the blog from Frances Clacy here:
In 2019/20, we built close to 42,000 homes, but this isn’t enough. The Mayor’s target is 52,000 homes per year but this is restricted by land availability. The Government estimate London’s housing need to be 94,000 homes a year, but this isn’t evenly distributed evenly across the market. A huge proportion of what currently isn’t being built is Affordable and Intermediate housing, and the biggest gaps between supply and demand for market housing is at prices below £700psf. More details can be found in our quarterly London supply note:
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Res Dev Webinar: Ripping up the rule book
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Missing Markets
Development paper – delivering resilient new homes
Spotlight First Homes: Affordability and viability
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Covid-19 and global city residential markets
What does a second Lockdown in England mean for the housing market?
Green Homes Grant
Why flexible design is key to meet shifting needs
Buyer prioritise access to open space and being closer to family compared to before the pandemic
Transaction costs
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Quarterly update
Supply and demand in London
Supply and demand
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Despite the additional 2% Stamp Duty Land Tax that was introduced on 1st April for non-domiciled buyers, London remains a competitive city to buy property as an international investor. This is particularly as the stamp duty exemption up to £500,000 has been extended up until the 30th June and then tapered at £250,000 until 30th September. But even from 1st October 2021 London will have significantly lower transactional costs when buying a $2million property than other global cities.
London’s transactional costs remain competitive in spite of 2% overseas buyer tax
How is the property market performing? Knowing how values, transactions and preferences are changing can give us a clear picture of the property market today – and a good indication of tomorrow. Our latest quarterly updates offer a concise overview of price movements across prime regional, London and rental markets, plus the property trends that will shape buyers' next move. Below you’ll find some key takeaways from the quarterly updates. There are many more talking points in the articles, so please do read the one relevant to your region. · 15.3%: Price premium to live within 100m of one of central London’s parks, up from 13.4% in 2015. · 0.6%: The average property price increase across prime London in Q1 2021; all parts of prime London have now returned to price growth. · 0.4%: Prime central London recorded its first quarterly price growth since the short-lived ‘Boris bounce’ in early 2020, suggesting the market has bottomed out.
Prime London house prices – Q1 2021
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Spanning from Stratford to Havering, the East London Corridor is the most affordable area of London, which will support demand both in the near future, and in the longer-term when Help to Buy ends in 2023. However, historic supply has fallen short of targets in this part of London and the failing of the Housing Delivery Test in some boroughs provides further opportunity for development. This region is set to benefit from infrastructure improvements over the next few years and will also see substantial investment into placemaking which will transform the area. As a result, the area has a very positive economic outlook. The unique affordability, current undersupply and volume of investment combine to create an incredibly exciting prospect for the East London Corridor.
Spotlight: East London Corridor Development
Spotlight
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Established in 2007, The Private Office helps high and ultra-high net worth individuals and their advisers gain access to comprehensive yet tailored and confidential real estate expertise and advice, across the fullspectrum of Savills services.The rationale behind The Private Office is straightforward. As companies grow, they often lose the very simple qualities upon which they were originally built. In particular, large organisations invariably struggle to maintain the high standards of client service at which smaller, boutique operations naturally excel.
One of the founding members of The Private Office, Ned established his name in the super prime residential market after his team sold close to £2.5bn worth of property in Knightsbridge’s One Hyde Park.
Back to work plans boost demand for town and city homes but country house and coastal markets still riding high
Buyers began quietly returning to the central London markets last summer, buying into the value on offer.This market has now bottomed out, Savills says, with marginal 0.4% growthin the first quarter marking the beginning of the projected recovery, correcting the falls seen in 2020 after the pandemic caused the post-election recovery to falter.Savills forecasts 3.0% price growth for prime central London this year and 7.0% in 2022. The desire for space that drove demand into the outer prime London markets over the second half of 2020 is playing out in central London, boosting demand for family houses with private gardens in locations such as Notting Hill (+1.3%) and Marylebone (+0.7%). The price of living close to open space has also risen sharply, reflected in the so-called ‘park premium’.Buyers should now expect to pay a premium of 15.3% to live within 100 metres of a central London park up from13.4% in 2015 and 28.1% within 50 metres, according to the Savills index. Across London the same themes are playing out.“Covid-19 has had a major impact on buyers’ decision making and what they consider most important in a home,” says Clacy.“A year ago, only 31% of London respondents in our survey ranked proximity to an open space in their top two priorities, a figure that has risen to 57%. “By contrast, proximity to a Tube station or to the office are less important.Only 39% of respondents ranked having a Tube close by essentialcompared to 63% a year ago.This will continue to push demand, particularly from families, out into the established and emerging outer prime London locations.” For these buyers private outside space remains a strong driver. South West London continues to be the top performer and the family house markets of East Sheen, Fulham, Putney, Wandsworth and Wimbledon have all seen growth of >1.5%. There’s also been a pick-up in activity in East London, Savills says.Values across Clerkenwell, Shoreditch, Victoria Park and Wapping increased by >1.0% in the first quarter, but in Canary Wharf they fell by -2.5%, leaving them 9.9% below peak, as vendors adjusted expectations. Here, back to work planning is clearly in evidence as buyers begin to act on the value on offer, both from young financial sector professionals and those looking to secure a weekday pied-a-terre in London. For the full press release click here.
The London story – central postcodes see values bottom out
Prime central London has recorded its first quarterly price growth since the short-lived post 2019 election ‘Boris bounce’, meaning that all parts of prime London have returned to price growth.Still, values in the central postcodes remain 20.5% below peak and this ‘buy’ opportunity is now translating into rising activity levels in a market dominated by domestic wealth, Savills says.
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Back to work plans
Private Office
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The Private Office
Please note this information is based on resale residential property
The link between good access to public transport and higher property prices is generally well accepted but Covid-19 has brought lifestyle changes which could well result in buyers rethinking the meaning of a well-connected neighbourhood. With this in mind, there are areas of London that are centrally located but hither to perceived as poorly connected which could now have scope for value growth. I have blogged before about the rise in the popularity of cycling in the city. In recent years there has been a steady increase, the number of cyclists on hired bikes in central London up 29 per cent from 2014 to 2019, until the national lockdown meant all movement reduced dramatically. More recently TfL has released data showing that journey numbers in inner London increased by seven per cent compared to spring 2019 and 22 per cent in outer London. Not only are more people cycling but they are spending more time on bikes with the average travel time on a Boris Bike rising from under 20 minutes in March 2020 to over 35 in May last year. In tandem we’ve seen the emergence of rentable electric bikes such as Lime and Uber (Jump). These are not tied to fixed locations, offering micromobility to areas that may be less accessible and the ability to ‘cycle’ to work with minimal effort. To find out more, read Hamish's full blog here:
How a rise in personal mobility could unlock residential value in the capital
As cycling has grown on popularity around the UK and world it is no longer enough for developers to simply provide cycle parking. Residents are expecting more as increasing numbers of people choose active mode of transport to commute to work. Cycle score provide design advice and an industry recognised certification which will give residents confidence in quality of the facilities available. We spoke to cycle score about their service and the trends they are seeing in market today.
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The left-hand image is a value heat map and highlights areas within 10km of Trafalgar Square. As expected the areas of high value are concentrated around Hyde Park and along the river, while areas of relatively good value are to the east and south east as shown. The map on the right is a connectivity heat map using PTAL rating to outline how connectivity may differ. As you can see there is a correlation as many areas of lower value also have a lower PTAL rating. (PTAL stands for 'Public Transport Accessibility Level' and is a measure of connectivity to the public transport network for locations within London). Given how central all these locations are they may increase in popularity due to the increase in micromobility. We have highlighted three areas which we believe offer the best opportunity for growth, where an increase in connectivity is also met with a significant development pipeline.
Consultancy Instagram polls
Rise in mobility
Cyclescore
Cladding update
Hamish Wilson
Hackney Wick
There has been strong demand in Hackney Wick for a number of years with the blueprint for successful development being set by the Bagel Factory in 2018. This is now being followed by schemes such as Lock 19, Stone Studios and Wickside. The quality of place has been steadily building over the past few years and combining this with increased connectivity to one of London major transport hubs in Stratford suggests there is further growth to be seen.
Old Kent Road
Lastly, possibly the best example, is Old Kent Road. The value heat map shows a large area of relatively good value following the road to the south east towards Greenwich, yet the closest tube station is Elephant and Castle, a zone 1 location. Similar to Poplar there is a large pipeline of development forecast over the next five years, again, led by Berkeley Homes. The site is currently around a 30 minute walk from the tube or a 10 minute bus journey, however, it would also only take about 10 minutes on a bike showing how effective it can be as a form of urban mobility. With house prices currently significantly lower than those surrounding the station it would appear that there is substantial opportunity for growth here as well.
Poplar
Just down the river from Hackney Wick is Poplar, another area of relatively good value. Berkeley is launching Phase 1 of the Poplar Riverside scheme providing major regeneration in the area and is just one of many sites due to be developed over the next five years along the river Lea. This will create a vibrant residential-led community which together with improved access to the Jubilee stations through micromobility provides a strong argument for growth in the medium to long term.
1. What is the CyclingScore certification?
CyclingScore Certification rates buildings according to an official set of standards that determine a building’s active mobility friendliness. These standards were developed in conjunction with industry professionals, travel planners, tenants and executives in cycle/active mobility orientated businesses. CyclingScore Certification demonstrates how active travel-friendly your buildings are.
2. What is the cost of the cycle score design lab and certification?
These are the 2 options for adopting CyclingScore: 1. Cycling Score Certification: Which includes: • Consultation with a CyclingScore surveyor • CyclingScore Assessment • Recommendations on how to improve the buildings/developments overall cycling friendliness • Certificate of your CyclingScore Certification which you can use on your website, social media channels and marketing materials.
Cost: £1195.00+VAT per year (min 2 years)
2. Cycling Score Certification + Full Design Service: All of the above, plus; • 2 years full Certification • Full design advice to lead you or your architects • Access to 10% discounts on products specified via partner companies such as Bike Dock Solutions (often negates the cost of certification and Full Design Service)
Cost: £3,000- £5,000.00+VAT (Depending on the project) 3D Modeling and CGIs of the ‘look and feel,’ i.e. wall/floor graphics, lighting, finishes, wayfinding, etc. (as shown in the CGIs below) is an optional extra at an additional cost of £2,000+VAT.
3. What are the main criteria to gaining a high cycle score?
Our scoring criteria covers 3 areas. The weighting of % marks is noted next to each topic: • Infrastructure (70%)- within the development for active mobility. For example, clearly marked routes for cyclists, clear signage, good quality and quantity of storage racks that cater for all types of bikes and scooters. • Service offerings to occupiers (20%)- These are active mobility services that are not necessarily paid for by the building owner. We just want to see occupiers being made aware of these types of services in the area. For example bike servicing companies and laundry type companies to use in the area. It could include community type engagement events such as bike rides if the development was large enough to warrant it. • Future proofing (10%)- This is where we want to see a plan in place for the building to cope with the anticipated increase in active mobility use in the coming years. For example this can be earmarked space to put bike/scooter racks in the future.
5. From your experience of residential developments how can the storage space be improved?
4. What are the most important elements to successful cycle storage?
6. When space is at a premium how can well-designed cycle storage improve efficiencies in residential buildings?
Bike/Scooter racks need to be of a good quality. Consideration should also be given to all types of active mobility. So racks for all types of bikes including folding/recumbent bikes.
Residential developers often do not include a variety of cycle storage solutions within their plans. They usually choose one type that often do not cater for folding/recumbent bikes. So catering for all types of bikes would be a huge improvement. Furthermore they often do not think about the look and feel of the space. Often storage spaces have stark white washed walls which are uninspiring and feel very sterile. Making these spaces more like ‘front of house’ areas would be a huge improvement.
There are numerous types of solutions on the market to store bikes efficiently. When we design a space we take this into account while ensuring they easy to operate. Obviously keeping cycle storage spaces as space efficient as possible is in the interest of the developer. So efficiency and providing enough infrastructure always needs to be considered to design the best facility possible.
To ensure fair scoring worldwide and avoid taking a blanket approach, we have structured our target ratios in the following ways: We have two topics that focus on the total number of cycle parking spaces required to meet our varying degree of criteria from low to high scoring. - Proportion of cycle parking to number of units/apartments For this topic, we look at the requirements set out by the local plan/authorities to which the asset would be expected to adhere to. This can vary depending on if it’s an existing building, refurbishment or new development. - Proportion of cycle parking to occupancy For this topic, we look at the percentage of bike ownership based on the latest National Travel Survey. This ensures that a more realistic target is set that best reflects the current and future active travel trends.
7. What ratio of spaces: apartments would you recommend for residential developments?
In Conversation With... CyclingScore
Following the Grenfell fire tragedy in 2017, the cladding crisis has brought economic, social and legal challenges to the fore. The tragedy has highlighted the danger of safety defects in existing buildings with flammable cladding. The valuation of properties for loan security presented a challenge for valuers as the safety risks prove difficult to quantify. This led to a stagnation in the housing market with some properties valued as nil. RICS have recently published guidance to provide clarity as to whether a valuer needs to request further investigation of cladding through an EWS1 form before valuing a property. What is an EWS1s form? RICS state that ‘The process itself involves a qualified professional conducting a fire-risk assessment on the external wall system, before signing an EWS1 form, which is valid for the entire building for five years.’ Its purpose is to ensure valuations can be provided for a mortgage or re-mortgage on a property which has external cladding of an uncertain composition or unsafe materials which could affect value if remediation is required. In a statement made by Parliament they described it as an ‘industry-wide valuation process which will help people buy and sell homes and re-mortgage in buildings above 18 metres (six storeys).’ The EWS1 form is not a safety certificate, it is for the valuer and lender to determine if the remediation costs affect value. In the case where the building does need remedial works this would fall on the responsibility of the building owner. An EWS1 form will not be required for every building. RICS has published guidance for Valuers on 8 March 2021 which includes criteria to help identify which building needs an EWS1 form. An EWS1 form will still be required for: • Buildings over six storeys with cladding or curtain wall glazing, or vertically stacked balconies made from or connected by combustible materials such as Timbre’ • Buildings of five or six storeys where there is significant cladding (covering approximately a quarter of the building or more), or there are ACM, MCM, or HPL panels on the building, or there are vertically stacked balconies made from or connected by combustible materials • Buildings of four storeys or less, if there are ACM, MCM, or HPL panels on the building The government has announced that they have made £5 billion available for buildings over 18 meters (six storeys) towards the remediation costs of unsafe cladding. This is step in the right direction for leaseholders in high-risk buildings however there is yet to be a detailed strategy on how the government will support those living in unsafe buildings below 18 meters.
Cladding Update April 2021
Our new Spotlight publication, published on the 22nd April is given over wholly to the issue of carbon in property. The Conference of the Parties (COP26), which is to take place in Glasgow in November this year, is the next milestone event for the world to address the challenge of climate change. With the built environment the source of 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions, it is clear that this issue increasingly represents the pre-eminent item on the agenda for all of us in the sector. Inside this issue we identify the key components of the industry’s response to date. Net zero is becoming the benchmark for new development and organisations operating in the sector are setting their own targets to achieve this. At Savills our target is to be net zero by 2030. The direction of travel is therefore clear, underpinned as it is by national legislation and increasingly stringent planning policy, and the momentum within the sector is impressive particularly during the period of lockdown. For all of us on this journey, it is increasingly a question of finding the tools and mechanisms to achieve the objective of net zero and gathering the data to endorse the effectiveness of the strategies being deployed. Encouragingly for those who make the additional investment that is necessary, there are emerging signs that there is a “green premium” to be had for property that has low carbon credentials. Occupiers of both residential and commercial property are increasingly sensitive to this metric of performance, driven by a new generation that is passionate about the planet.
Property & Carbon
For the full publication click here:
The Team
I have been working in property for 21 years, previously to joining Savills I set up my own consultancy and was advising a range of suppliers to the sector on frameworks and business development. I spent 10 years at L&Q as London Sales Director. I absolutely love working up a development from the initial land purchase to final sale – it’s great to see a home you helped develop coming to life. At home I am a sucker for a rescue animal, currently have three cats and would have more (not allowed!) I love eating out, planning short breaks, trips to visit friends and big holidays. My other love is Rugby Union, comes from having a big family with three brothers and being dragged down the club at the weekend – eventually I thought if you can’t beat them – join them – so I did!
Meet our Team: Interview with Lucy Chitty, Head of Shared Ownership
Thanks to 230 experts spread across 24 teams we cover all of the UK, launching developments both off-plan and on the open market. With tens of thousands of applicants registered to buy new-build property in the UK (and with the help of our international desks for the Middle East, China, India and Russia), we are confident that we can maximise visibility of your development to a global market – and secure a successful transaction on your behalf. Our specialist international sales and marketing professionals advise developers of all sizes, helping them to target buyers of new-build property around the globe via our network of over 600 offices. This includes guidance on international marketing best practice and regulations, hosting sales events, and the analysis of global buyer behaviour.
Interviewer
Andrew Hawkins Director, International ahakwins@savills.com
Annie Johnson Associate annie.johnson@savills.com
Bronwyn Jones Associate Director bajones@savills.com
Charlotte Kennedy PA & Department Co-ordinator charlotte.kennedy@savills.com
Edward Lewis Head of London Residential Development Sales elewis@savills.com
Freya Watson Associate Director fwatson@savills.com
Genevieve Mayoh Associate genevieve.mayoh@savills.com
Harri Williams-Jones Associate Director hwjones@savills.com
Hassan Basma Associate Director Middle East Desk hassan.basma@savills.com
Katie Siese Associate ksiese@savills.com
Lin Liu Associate lliu@savills.com
Liz Ward Sales & Marketing Coordinator eward@savills.com
Madeleine Maguire Associate mmaguire@savills.com
Maria Eivers Associate Director meivers@savills.com
Ned Baring Director, Super Prime nbaring@savills.com
Nick Vaughan Head of Mainstream, West & East – Sales & Marketing nvaughan@savills.com
Nina Coulter UK Board Director ncoulter@savills.com
Otto Twist Associate Director otwist@savills.com
Richard Osborne-Young Director, Super Prime royoung@savills.com
Rose Fyfe Surveyor rfyfe@savills.com
Sophie Rosier Director srosier@savills.com
Tor Jones-Davies Director, Product Delivery tjonesdavies@savills.com
Alexandra Cook Senior Sales consultant alexandra.cook@savills.com
Anne Currell Director anne.currell@savills.com
Baljinder Kandola Sales Operations & Team Coordinating Manager bal.kandola@savills.com
Benjamin Hobart Director Head of Hackney Wick Office ben.hobart@savills.com
Carla McInrue Associate carla.mcinrue@savills.com
Danny Bradley Sales Negotiator danny.bradley@savills.com
George Fleming Sales Negotiator gfleming@savills.com
George Woodhouse Associate gwoodhouse@savills.com
James Stuart-Mogg Sales Negotiator jsmogg@savills.com
Gaby Foord Research Analyst gaby.foord@savills.com
Jeremy James Sales Director jjames@savills.com
Jo Mantzaridis Office co-ordinator & PA to Benjamin Hobart jo.mantzaridis@savills.com
Laura Moore Senior Sales Negotiator laura.moore@savills.com
Katy Warrick Head of London Residential Development Research KWarrick@savills.com
Lillie Ellis PA & Sales Team Assistant lillie.ellis@Savills.com
Lindsay Gill Associate Director lgill@savills.com
Lucy Chitty Head of Shared Ownership lucy.chitty@savills.com
Sascha Moore Development Consultant sascha.moore@savills.com
Sophie Etheridge Associate setheridge@savills.com
Theo Gordon Associate Director thgordon@savills.com
Michael McGill Research Analyst michael.mcgill@savills.com
Sebastian Golding Research Analyst sebastian.golding@savills.com
Lucy Chitty
Tell us a bit about yourself….
What did you want to be when you grew up?
My first memory is wanting to be a nurse and owning the fisher price first aid kit, At college I was convinced I wanted to be a barrister, at University I had dreams of being a DJ, travelling around the world – none of which came true! I’ve always been envious of people who knew exactly what they wanted to do….
What was the most useful advice you’ve ever received?
Actually a quote– ‘Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm’
How long have you been at Savills?
Only six months and it has absolutely flown by, I was so fortunate to be able to work from Margaret Street when I first joined – I had a fantastic induction programme arranged and I met lots of people from across the business in the first month, those introductions proved so important.
What keeps you motivated to go to work each day?
Two things, firstly I am an absolute nerd, and I am ambitious. I love a ‘to-do’ list – nothing more satisfying that ticking off jobs and getting results, secondly I love being around people and the opportunities that can arise when you are out and about talking and meeting people – the last point has been the most frustrating about lockdown.
What advice would you give to someone just starting out in their career?
I have always said don’t say no to an opportunity, be open to change and learning. Volunteer for any new opportunities which come your way as the first person who did anything successful is now reaping the benefits. Secondly be nice – you never know when you are going to bump into someone again and lastly always trust your gut feeling.
What is a skill you’d like to learn and why?
100% be able to play the guitar, failing that I would also like to learn how to skim stones on the sea – my family laugh at me
Where would you say are the top three places to visit in the uk?
Fowey in Cornwall, The New Forest and The Bar in my back garden
What’s your go to Karaoke Song?
Young Hearts Run Free, Candi Staton
Tom Mann Director, Product Delivery tmann@savills.com
Tom Stevenson Head of New Homes East London - Canary Wharf tstevenson@savills.com
Wai Kit Chan Sales Negotiator wai.chan@savills.com
Wei Jing Sales Negotiator wei.jing@savills.com
Sophie Williamson Team Co-ordinator sophie.williamson@savills.com
Sophie Illingworth Surveyor sillingworth@savills.com
Ray Chen Associate ray.chen@savills.com
Sam Powell Sales Negotiator spowell@savills.com
Sarah Peck Associate Director sepeck@savills.com
Oksana d’Offay Associate Director oksana.doffay@savills.com
Nadia Shakor PA & Team Co-ordinator nadia.shakor@savills.com
Hamish Wilson Associate hamish.wilson@savills.com
Jack Pearce Associate Director Jack.Pearce@savills.com
James Paterson Sales Negotiator james.paterson@savills.com
Flavia Robinson Sales Negotiator frobinson@savills.com
Dan Martin Associate Director dan.martin@savills.com
Amy Clover Associate Director amy.clover@savills.com
Amy Davis Associate Director adavis@savills.com
Chris Rees-Williams Associate Director crwilliams@savills.com
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Mayfair Park Residences, mayfair, W1K 1AG
Situated adjacent to one of Dorchester Collection’s world-renowned hotels, 45 Park Lane, is Clivedale London’s Mayfair Park Residences, an exclusive collection of 24 residences in the form of apartments, townhouses and a penthouse, all fully serviced by Dorchester Collection. This is the first time Dorchester Collection has lent its name to a residential development. Mayfair Park Residences has been designed to offer a level of amenities previously unseen in any residential development in London. Residents will enjoy access to a 10,000 sq ft Health Club with a state-of-the-art-gym, 20m heated swimming pool, sauna, steam room, hydrotherapy pool, treatment rooms and a residents’ lounge, all fully staffed by Dorchester Collection. With Five-star amenities and in-house services delivered by the adjoining Dorchester Collection London hotel, 45 Park Lane, this is the ultimate in sophisticated city living, for those who insist on the very best of everything. Prices from £4,250,000
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Sarah Peck
apartment - 22 CUMBERLAND TERRACE, NW1 4HP
Stephen Lindsay
An exceptional, first floor balconied apartment, located in the prestigious Cumberland Terrace, offering outstanding views of Regent’s Park and the Terrace's private gardens. The apartment benefits from triple aspect, and is finished to a high standard with every detail taken care of. The apartment comprises of an entrance hall, separate large dining room and separate large reception room, joined by a glass door. There is a kitchen with breakfast room, master bedroom with en-suite bathroom, second large bedroom, third large bedroom, forth single bedroom/study and a guest shower and toilet. The apartment further benefits from a large service/laundry room with internal service lift. The principal rooms face the park. The apartment has a garage and storage room and additional parking front and rear and enjoys 24-hour porterage. Price: £7,250,000
House - 4 Wildwood Road, NW116uj
A spectacular family residence surrounded by Hampstead Heath and Turner’s Wood offering 15,400 sf on a wide 0.6 acre plot. Luxurious living, scale and proportion, attention to detail. Extensive lateral layout with four entertaining rooms, a Great Hall and family kitchen. Seven en-suite bedrooms. Leisure facilities set around a courtyard. Beautiful landscaped gardens with a woodland aspect. Price: £23,950,000
Aldgate Lodge, ketton, rutland PE9 3TD
Aldgate Lodge is a large imposing village house in the highly sought after and pretty village of Ketton in the county of Rutland. The current owners have spent considerable time and effort to bring the house firmly into the 21st century and the property is excellently presented both inside and out. Price: £3,850,000
Tim Phillips
Dane court, chelmsford, CM3 4NW
Dane Court is a substantial house constructed about 15 years ago designed and orientated to overlook its own grounds with far-reaching views towards the Crouch Valley and beyond. It occupies a beautiful and private location, which is approached through an electric-gated entrance with substantial brick piers off an unmade woodland track. Price: £4,250,000
Spectacular South facing apartment facing the Louvre Museum has benefited from an exceptional renovation, with perfectly maintained common areas and a remarkable reception. Excellently planned with rare ceiling heights of 4.50m.
Res Dev News
Please see the graph below showing the Heathrow passenger numbers from January 2019 – Sept 2020
• There were 95 £5m+ sales in Q3 2020 (new build and second hand). • This was more than twice the number seen in Q2 2020 when the market was mostly in lockdown.
• Despite lockdown, year to date the number of £5m+ transactions is 12% higher than the same period last year – mostly due to this strong recovery in Q3. • There were 14 new build £5m+ sales in Q3, representing 15% of all sales.
• Data from LonRes shows that there were 116 £1m+ transactions across PCL in September. This is slightly above the 113 seen in August. During September, transactions for this part of the market were running at around 90% of the levels seen on average in the past 5 years.
• But it was also 76% higher than the number of sales in Q3 2019, and 28% higher than Q3 2018 – signifying strong recovery in the market this quarter.
Half of buyers could miss out on stamp duty holiday from next week
Will China be the only G20 economy to grow this year?
Spotlight: Branded Residences - 2020
TwentyCi have analysed the average length of time for house sales to progress to exchange in light of the recent rise in market demand. This to assess the likelihood of buyers completing before the end of the stamp duty holiday on March 31st 2021. The chart below indicates an increase in time to progress sales following lockdown, to a peak of 114 days in June, compared to an average timescale of 95 days for 2019. Although average timescales fell in August due to a comparatively low level of exchanges, they are anticipated to rise following a record number of Q3 sales agreed this year, a 53% rise on 2019 figures. TwentyCi argue that conveyancers and other services involved in the sale of a property (e.g local authority searches, lenders, valuers) will not be able to keep pace with this large and sustained increase in work. Allowing for the increased work-load and a 2 weeks Christmas break, they estimate that it will take on average 160 days, or 5.3 months to complete a sale. Working back from the stamp duty holiday deadline, TwentyCi assume that of the sales agreed on 22nd October, half of them will not complete in time. Pressure and calls for the government to extend the stamp duty holiday as a result of delays are building.
Katy Warrick presented this week at the Institute of Directors Property group on net zero in property. She was there to set the scene from the demand perspective – what do customers want. The other speakers were really interesting. Alan Fogarty from Cundall, Riccardo Abello from Franklin Real Asset Advisors, and Rebecca Self from South Pole (one technical expert and two people commenting from the investment perspective).
The Chinese economy grew 4.9% between July and September, according to government data, as China becomes the first major economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The year-on-year expansion, while slightly lower than analyst expectations, represents a dramatic reversal from the first quarter of this year when the economy shrunk by 6.8%. China’s central bank governor, Yi Gang, has said that officials predict annual growth of about 2.0%. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to contract by 4.4%, according to the International Monetary Fund, the steepest downturn since the Great Depression. Latest Chinese data shows that industrial production in September rose 6.9% compared to the same period last year while retail sales were up 3.3%. Auto sales for the month also increased 12.8% while domestic air travel exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending has also begun to pick up again, illustrated by a resurgence in tourism during a week-long public holiday in October known as Golden Week (The Guardian).
current MARKET INTEL
• With new regional lockdown measures being introduced at the start of the week, Oxford Economics have revised their GDP forecasts, now expecting GDP to fall by 10.3% in 2020 (up from -9.5%), before recovering to grow by 6.7% in 2021 (down from 8.3%). The full note is attached. • In our new Prime Market in Minutes we’ve updated our prime forecasts for both sales and rents. The new forecasts can be found in the attached PDFs – please do share with clients. • The latest UK Housing Market Update shows house prices rising by 0.9% in September, taking annual growth up to a scrumptious 5.0% - the strongest level since September 2016. • Banks are resisting government pressure to rush back into riskier areas of the mortgage market, in spite of Boris Johnson’s recent announcement. According to executives at several large banks, banks are unlikely to offer many 95% LTV loans, citing a bleak economic outlook and rising unemployment as reasons. • Mortgage approvals across the UK in August were at their highest monthly level for nearly 13 years, fuelled by the stamp duty holiday and low interest rates.
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• Number of homes sold within 7 days up 125%. More sellers are finding a buyer within a week of putting their home up for sale than at any time in the past ten years. Rightmove reported a 125% jump in homes sold subject to contract within seven days of coming to market compared with last year (The Guardian)
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Visitors, reservations and house prices show signs of recovery
The latest Home Builders Federation’s survey shows that July’s new homes reservations were up strongly on a year ago with site visitors almost returning to the same level as July 2019. House prices in July this year were 1.5% up on the same period last year according to Nationwide’s newly released house price data. These metrics give a positive outlook for the housing market off the back of the halt caused by lockdown.
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Our prime London Market in Minutes was published earlier this week, and can be found here. It shows a significant recover in activity levels in the prime markets of London since reopening on 13th May, and includes our updated 5-year forecasts for PCL and outer prime London.
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Our Housing Market Update for July has been released, discussing the latest indicators in the market. New instructions, new buyer enquiries and numbers of sales agreed all saw strong rebounds.
• Listen here to the CapitalRise podcast featuring Katy Warrick from Savills Research • Please see here for a new guide to stamp duty for buyers. • The UK economy rebounded slower than expected in May, growing 1.8% from the previous month, following contractions of 6.9% and 20.4% in March and April respectively. Manufacturing and construction grew by more than 8% during the month. • Plans have been announced to power London’s entire tube network from renewable electricity within the next decade, to be purchased from wind and solar farms. TfL is currently one of the UK’s largest consumers of electricity, with its annual power usage equivalent to that used by roughly 12% of all households in the capital.
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• Please read The latest Savills Prime Residential Spotlight • Rishi Sunak is set to snub City of London calls for a new state-owned body that would refinance tens of billions of pounds of coronavirus loans issued to UK companies. • UK mortgage lending accelerated in July, the latest sign of a post-lockdown bounce-back in the housing market. Mortgage approvals jumped to 66,300 from just under 40,000 in June and seven times higher than their coronavirus pandemic low of barely more than 9,000 in May. • Our latest client survey was published this week which included insight from 1,400 registered buyers and sellers. The survey revealed greater urgency in the desire to move than an earlier survey mid-lockdown. Demand is driven by a desire for the right home to suit new lifestyle expectations, with more space being the key driver. This suggests that Covid-19 will leave a lasting impression on the market. • The UK economy expanded for the third consecutive month in July. GDP grew by 6.6% for the month of July. While, the economy is on the road to recovery, the UK economy is still 11.7% smaller than it was in February. • Barclays has pulled its riskier mortgage products after coming close to their high risk lending limit due to the popularity mortgage products at 5.5 times income in the post lockdown period. Barclays has lowered its LTI multiples to a maximum of 4.49 up to 90% LTV. Brokers fear that this may be a sign of things to come from other lenders. • Capco has exchanged contracts to sell an island site in Covent Garden to APG. The site is formed of six properties providing 66,000 sqft of space. • Earlier this week the Government announced a number of changes to the structure of Shared Ownership. Lawrence has written a blog on how these changes might affect affordability moving forward. • The Green Homes Grant announced back in July aims to upgrade 600,000 homes by covering energy-saving home improvements. In this note, Nicholas and Sophie discuss whether this initiative would result in a rise the country’s average EPC rating.
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GVA in July 12% below February 2020 but variation by sector
GVA has recovered as lockdown has eased with GVA rising from 26% below February 2020 in April to 12% below February 2020 in July 2020. Some sectors have recovered better than others, with Wholesale and retail GVA, the second largest contributor to total GVA, now equalling February 2020. Despite rising considerably between April and July, Accommodation and food service GVA in July was only 40% of February 2020.
Source: ONS
Source: HBF, Nationwide
