Welcome to our latest newsletter. In this edition we showcase our new Property Portfolio, where you can view all the new developments currently available to buy in London. We share our recent research which is focused on redefining residential value. Until recently most conversations were centred on maximising sales value per square foot, on minimising costs, on selling 'units' faster. This must change. Developers will have to consider carbon, biodiversity and social impact alongside sales rates and achieved values. We can’t ignore ESG when thinking about GDV. We also talk about some of our good news stories from across the autumn, chat with our own Interior Services team and our consultancy team have interviewed Vebox, to discuss all things parking storage. We hope you enjoy this edition and as always if you'd like to reach us, just email newhomes@savills.com, or click The Team tab to find out more about us.
We have just launched the new version of the LRDS Property Portfolio and once again we are proud to offer the widest range of new build and refurbishment for sale right across London. These include Help to Buy, riverside apartments, boutique prime centralapartments and houses and a range of exciting new schemes in some of London’s up and coming locations.
Latest Research
Please look out for notes further down this page or on other pages. Initial notes: Please view in preview to familiarize yourself with nav and template first. Text is synced throughout experience Navigation menu - Each title on the navigation menu you see here has a dropdown menu. The only element to be updated is the research hotspot in the research dropdown menu called 'The latest from the savills research team' This will lead directly to the chosen article on the Savills website. This needs to be applied on both Desktop & Mobile. SDK's are all set up as generic names and will not need updated. For example analytics-click will point towards a payload called 'View London Residential Development 1' This is to reduce time per issue that would be added personalising per property name (based on price).
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Until recently most conversations were centred on maximising sales value per square foot, on minimising costs, on selling 'units' faster. This must change. Developers will have to consider carbon, biodiversity and social impact alongside sales rates and achieved values. We can’t ignore ESG when thinking about GDV. Read the full report here:
Research
How changing buyer preferences might impact residential values on London The relationship between service charges, amenities, and affordability Why isn’t there a green premium, and will one start to emerge? How to stay ahead of sustainability regulation changes
• • • •
Where prime buyers have been spending their money in London –and on what –has changed during the pandemic. Clapham Common has seen the greatest increase in spend on £1m+ properties in the year to May 2021 versus the year to May 2019. And Wimbledon village saw £213million of £1m+ transactions take place in the last year. Across Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster £4.46billion worth of £1m+ property transacted in the last year. That’s actually the same as was recorded in the year to May 2019, suggesting central London has continued to see a steady seam of demand even without international buyers.
On Thursday 21st October 2021 we hosted our annual London Residential Development research output via webinar, hosted by Sophie Rosier, London Residential Development. This year our Consultancy team have challenged our Residential Research experts, Katy Warrick and Lawrence Bowles, to take on some of the most hotly debated topics:
The London market has been particularly disrupted by repeated lockdowns and the shift to home working changing buyers’ priorities. As a consequence, areas of the market have diverged and have the potential to continue performing very differently over the next five years. The most notable change in London has been the growing preference for houses over flats. From 2010 to 2020, flats accounted for 54%of all transactions in London. In January 2021, 60%of transactions were houses, the highest proportion for any month since 1995. In 2020, flat transaction volumes fell by 30%year on year, compared with a fall of just 16% for houses. But as the economy opens up and more employees return to office-based working, the trade-off between space and a central location could begin to tip back to smaller units in inner London. The resurgent rental market seen this summer suggests this shift is already underway.
Across both the second hand and new build market there were 352 transactions above £5m between Q1 andQ3 2021, higher than thefull year figure for 2020and higher than any full year since 2015. For new build properties there were 17 exchanges in Q3 2021, the highest number of quarterly exchanges since Q1 2020 (when the market had just started to recover before Covid-19). That means new build sales above £5m accounted for 15% of the market in Q3 2021, up from 5% in H1 2021.
This coincides with 1.4% price growth across prime central London in the last year, confirming our view that central London values have bottomed out and its recovery has begun after 7 years of price falls.
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Res Dev Webinar: Ripping up the rule book
Recent Webinars
Shared Ownership Webinar
PCL webinar with Lucian and Anne Ashworth
Missing Markets Webinar
Recent Publications
PCL document
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Missing Markets
Development paper – delivering resilient new homes
Spotlight First Homes: Affordability and viability
Infrastructure levy
Recent Blogs
Buyer survey results
Capital gains tax article
Changes to shared ownership
Covid-19 and global city residential markets
What does a second Lockdown in England mean for the housing market?
Green Homes Grant
Why flexible design is key to meet shifting needs
Mapped out: prime demand across London’s boroughs
Super prime strength
The changing pattern of growth in London
Changing pattern of growth
Mapped out
Super Prime Strength
New build homes –energy efficient and deliver amenities. But have developers got it right?
New Build Homes
Panellists Tom Hill, Nina Coulter and Dan Martin joined for a live Q&A session, please feel free to watch the webinar and read our full report here.
Take a look inside
On a rainy Thursday London Residential Development Salestook partin a charity softball tournament in Regents Park put on by Caudwell Children. Founded in 2000, Caudwell Children has helped over 56,000 children with 652 different medical conditions. Passionate about removing the barriers so that disabled children can reach their full potential, the charity provides a wide range of practical and emotional support including specialist equipment, access to treatment, family support, short breaks and a multi-disciplinary autism assessment and intervention service from the award-winning Caudwell International Children’s Centre. Central to the charity’s mission is to ‘see the child, not the disability’ and to create a world where disabled children and their families have the choice, opportunity, dignity and understanding they deserve. They are renowned for their corporate events and challenges and offer an excitingcalendar of fundraising activities including The Butterfly Ball, Cycle with Champions and running, golf, boxing or walking events both in the UK and overseas. Savills donated £300 to enter two teams who played in a Round Robin tournament. The team won the prize for ‘Best Dressed’, and Ben Szczepanski who was doing work experience with the team at the time was team captain and also won ‘Man of the Match’ If you are interested in getting involved with any similar events please follow the link or get in touch with Lindsay Gill
Cauldwell Children Charity Softball Tournament
Colleagues volunteer time for conversation club with the homeless
Colleagues in the London Residential Development Sales team and the UK Socio Economic Group have now been volunteering as part of a conversation club with holistic homeless charityC4WSfor 6 months. C4WS runs a winter night shelter for homeless people in London, dealing with everyone from those in the LGBTQ+ community who have been sadly kicked out of their homes through to refugees who are all doing their best to get off the streets. The conversation club involves one-on-one video calls with C4WS’ guests to help them practice their English. Volunteers have been helping those trying to get back on their feet learn vocabulary ranging from how to speak to a doctor through to chatting about the football league –all led by the interest of those they are helping. Volunteering involves spending one hour per week for three/four consecutive weeks calling with the same person to establish consistency and rapport. Savills involvement with the charity began three years ago –initially with collection boxes on each floor of Margaret Street. The charity offers showers to everyone that comes to them and were keen for donations of underwear and toiletries. In 2020, some teams donated their usual Secret Santa amount to the charity, which amounted to £1,200. Last year Savills donated an additional £6,000 to the charity. Lindsay Gillin London Residential Development Salesand a member of the Savills UK Socio Economic Groupsays, “when many people are struggling, one thing we can give is our time. The guests at C4WS are so grateful and have found their conversation sessions invaluable.” If you are interested in more information about this programme please get in contact with Lindsay Gill.
Savills shortlisted for RESI Awards 2021
Savills has been shortlisted for the following RESI Awards: Consultancy Practice and Sales and Lettings Agency. The ceremony will take place on 1 December and is a milestone occasion as it is the 10th RESI Awards show. Savills are partners with RESI Awards this year and are also sponsoring the Large Developer award. Patrick Eve, head of UK Development appeared in a video in which he states that the awards, “recognise some of the big names in the industry” and while the “last few years have been challenging, this is a great time for us to get together and look at key areas including ESG and social impact agendas.”
Can you tell us a bit about your team and what you do?
Our team coordinate and manage all aspects of client’s journey through a residential renovation or refurnishing project from it’s conceptual design all the way through the process of finding and appointing the right professionals to carry out the refurbishment works and supervising them through the “on site” phase. We work with a range of contractors, specialists and furniture suppliers meaning we can provide tailored proposals to our clients suiting any style or budget requirements. We do have a new service launching which we think will be of particular interest to buyers of new build properties whichwill enable them to personalise their new home in cleverand cost effectiveways to make it individual to them and standout from the other identical properties in the same development. This could be of interest to both buyers after completion of their purchase or as an “add on” offering for an developer to offer to their clients as a way of offering a personalised finish in each apartment.
Savills Interior Services
What have been the biggest trends in 2021?
Much of the country are still working, socialising and exercising in their home, meaning comfort has been a priority above all else in 2021. Think deep sofas, warm colours,home gymsand overall durability. People are still moving away from beige and grey, we are looking atmore hopeful colours like yellows and greens.
Describe your average work day in 3 words?
Exciting, Challenging, Rewarding
How would a developer get in touch with you to discuss your service and offering?
Our email address for all general enquiries is interiorservices@savills.com or if you wish to speak to one of team, our numbers can be found on our Savills page. We would love to hear from you.
What would you say is the most important amenity for developers to include at their schemes?
Savvy storage, especially in apartments where space is limited this is a must.
What is the biggest difference between new build property in London and the rest of the UK?
In terms of designI feelyou can be more expressive because of the vibrant culture and city life. London in its majority is fast paced, attracting dynamicprofessionals and an overall wide variety of individuals.
What are the most important things for developers to consider whenthinking about the interior design of their schemes?
Some of the most stylish developments we have seen have followed a timeless design but they have created their own style by mixing materials/ colours throughout the development. For example they have had the same layout but paired a dark kitchen with light floors or vice versa.
How has the pandemic affected your team and what you offer?
We have needed to be adaptable throughout and have worked closely with our trusted contractors and suppliers to ensure we have still been able to deliver a high standard of service across ourrefurbishment projects and furnishing.
How does having a dressed show apartment affect a new development launch?
It has a massive impact, walking into a dressed apartment helps make the space feel bigger, full of personality and more inviting. It’s important to make a good first impression and make sure it stands out from the crowd.
What have you noticed change most over the last 5 years?
I would say design has become more important,there is a lot more options out there and with careful design and furnishing no two properties need to be the same.
Additionally, Savills has consulted on and been involved with many of the schemes nominated for Development of the Year. London Residential Development Sales team have been closely involved with consultancy for Carrick Yard (The Luton Street and Fisherton Street Regeneration) which has been nominated for both Social Impact Initiative and Residential Deal of the Year awards. You can view the full shortlist here
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Charlotte Hodges-Peck Senior Consultant - Associate Director chpeck@savills.com
Faye Wilkin Interior Consultant faye.wilkin@savills.com
We’ve talked before about Prime Central London always flicking the switch and leading the recovery out of a down turn. Indeed this is normally spearheaded by international buyers seeing value and taking advantage of currency opportunities. In the Covid erawe are in unfamiliar territory having to play second fiddle with strong growth in the country market first, then domestic London. But the Prime Central market is beginning to stir. Savills research department have upgraded their 2022 forecast and buyers are increasingly aware of the opportunity to be had while prices remain lower. The value on offer is significant in both a historical and global context in a market where values remain on average 20.3% below their 2014 peak. We’re also seeing an uptick in demand for a wider variety of housing types in London as office workers return, and as a result, we expect the ‘window of opportunity’ to close quickly. The return to full international travel will still be crucial to the recovery in prices across the mostcentral, high-value parts of the capital, but there is a vibe on the street and more international visitors are finding their way into London. September proved to be a fantastic month for LRD, in which we secured 150 reservations.We also achieved 120 exchanges for the month, exchanging on over £165m worth of stock. Whilst August was strong in terms of reservation numbers, September’s exchange figures have given us real confidence and we are determined to bring this confidence and momentum into the end of the year. So far this year we have secured over 1,000 sales, with a total value of £1.3bn. It remains the case of when, and not if, recovery takes place.
Consultancy Hub
The recently adopted London Plan now sets out a requirement that parking spaces within communal parking areas should be leased rather than sold.
The policy promotes leasing car parking spaces on ‘short leases’, however there is currently no guidance on how short the leases should be. The lease length will be dictated by the local authority and it will be on the developer to make their own case and argue to the approach on certain lease lengths. In our experience to date, leases of one year are the norm and allow sufficient flexibility for developers. Most commonly we see ‘right to park’ or ‘use it or lose it’ frameworks which can be set up on an annual basis and maintain enough flexibility for the developer. A Car Parking Management Plan is also advised to manage the parking and detail the basis on which the parking spaces are leased.
Policy Update: London Plan Parking Requirements
In conversation with... Vebox
Tell us about VEBOX and why and how it started.
In late 2018, we came across the concept of over-the-bonnet storage cabinets in Australia and NZ. They were huge boxes on 4 legs that you could park your car bonnet under. The concept was simple, innovative and attractive - as we believed, you could show a picture of the storage cabinets on legs to anyone on the planet, whether they be an Eskimo or an astronaut, and they will immediately understand what it is, what it does and whether it is of any use to them. So we imported a very basic styled, 4-leg car space storage cabinet and spent 2019 testing the UK market to find out whether residents wanted extra storage (they did), whether they would pay for it (they would) and whether there was a business case for different sales channels, such as residential property developers and BTR owners and operators (and there was). During 2020 we designed and developed our own car space cabinets and in January 2021 we launched the VEBOX, a Danish designed and UK-made two legged cabinet.
Although this is a new requirement in the London Plan (and now adopted within many London Borough’s Local Plans) it is a policy which TFL have been promoting for a number of years. The idea behind the policy is to maintain flexibility and efficiency within a development. With a drive from the GLA for developments to be ‘car free’ across the capital, ensuring parking spaces are leased on short-term leases will allow control and flexibility in repurposing car parks in the future. Developers are already looking at ways to repurpose car parking areas and maximise value by adding in additional cycle space or storage containers for residents. Below we talk to VEBOX who provide innovative storage cabinets for car parking spaces, offering an additional revenue stream for developers and Landlords.
Name title phone email
Changes to parking
In conversation with Vebox
How can VEBOX benefit developers and landlords?
In short, VEBOX units can be a simple way to generate more revenue from the car park whilst providing customers and residents with something they value and need – extra onsite storage – without taking up any extra space. The VEBOX can also instantly and significantly add to the overall cycle storage provision of a building, which is increasingly important in local planning submissions. A major benefit for developers, landlords and customers is that a VEBOX is essentially creating an extra 1sqm (2.3 cubic metres) of storage out of the air above car bonnets, at a fraction of the cost of space upstairs in an apartment and with near to zero maintenance costs. As an example, for BTR investors and operators, the VEBOX can be purchased and then leased to residents as a new amenity. Car spaces typically rent at £100 per month to residents, whilst a VEBOX storage unit can add £30-£50 pm extra income, from the same car space. This represents a yield increase from each car space of potentially 30-50%+ per annum (or more, as some of our storage cabinets are currently leased out by clients to residents at £85 per month in Central London).
Are the storage boxes “one-size fits all”? Is there a solution if a large section of a car park is underused?
Our approach is the opposite of ‘one-size-fits-all’, as every building is different and every client’s needs are different. Because we manufacture the cabinets here in the UK ourselves, we have full flexibility on the size, design and function of the units. We have the standard VEBOX on legs for use in car spaces, as well as being able to remove the legs and stack the units on top of each other for any unused spots in corners or under ramps, we can also install the units so they stand upright in a large locker-style formation – and build them to any size or specification our clients require. We also have an outdoor VEBOX called the EXO in development and due to launch in early 2022 – so watch this space!
How much can you really fit inside one?
The first thing people say when they see a VEBOX in real life is, “Wow. This thing is HUGE!! It’s so much bigger than it looks in the photos”. The dimensions of the box are 2.3m x 1.1m x 1.1m, so it is over 2.3 cubic metres of storage, which is big enough for storing adult bikes as well as suitcases, golf bags, chairs, archive boxes, child car seats, Christmas decorations and all of the other bulky household goods that fill up hallways, cupboards and balconies within apartments. As an example of size, when we install the units and the legs are on, we will frequently have two installers (who might be over 6 feet tall), both sitting fully inside the box to do the final fixings.
Which developers / landlords are you currently working with?
We are excited to be at various stages of engagement with a number of the largest developers and BTR operators in the UK. Whilst the VEBOX was launched only this year, we have already provided multiple quotes for between 20 and 100 units for sites in London and around the UK. In order to make it easier for clients to include VEBOX in their development plans at the earliest stage, we have recently joined NBS. So the VEBOX car space storage unit BIM assets will be available on NBS Source and NBS Chorus, to be selected and easily dropped into CAD plans. This is a very exciting next step in helping the units become a standard product to be easily included in car park designs and client asset revenue models. I am sorry we are not allowed to provide names at this point, however, we are looking forward to formally announcing our first major UK VEBOX clients very soon!
Do you have any expansion plans beyond the UK?
Yes, our original plan was to wait until 2022 to export into Europe, however, due to inbound enquiries, we have already launched VEBOX with exclusive representative agents in Gibraltar and Monaco. The demand for self storage is high in the UK and even more so in many countries in Europe. So having now established a simple and highly replicable process of exporting to and installingthe VEBOXwithin different countries, we see our growth in 2022 in the UK and the EU to be on an exciting trajectory.
If you'd like to explore including VEBOX within one of your developments please do get in touch with our Consultancy team who will direct you to the relevant person at VEBOX.
flexibility and efficiency
Sustainability
Now in its 18th year, Recycle Week 2021 could be considered more important than ever. Having taken place in the lead up to the COP 26 climate change conference being held in Glasgow, it focused on the steps both individuals and businesses can take to help tackle the climate crisis. This year’s theme was ‘step it up’ and with the real estate sector accounting for over a third of global carbon emissions, it is essential that we do just that. The impact of waste and recycling on climate change is often overlooked and extends far beyond the CO2 emissions generated by waste incineration and refuse vehicles. For example, the property industry in particular uses a considerable number of materials, from steel, concrete and glass to furniture, lighting and ventilation systems. All of which contribute to the carbon embodied in the design and construction of buildings.
What, then, can we do about it? Aside from making an individual effort to produce less waste, it is essential that we start integrating circular economy principles into building design and operations. With the World Green Building Council estimating that a third of the sector's emissions derive from design decisions and construction techniques, incorporating these principles has the potential to make a serious contribution to the decarbonisation of the sector. Ultimately, the circular economy aims to replace the inefficient flows of materials and resources with ones that are kept in use for as long as possible. When they are no longer of use, they are then recovered and remanufactured into new products. More and more businesses are embracing circularity and now entire industries from consumer technology to fashion are adopting circular principles. How these principles can be applied to real estate depends on whether it is an existing asset or under development.
For existing buildings this can include incorporating best in class waste strategies in order to move towards ‘zero waste’. This would mean maximising the amount of material separated on site to generate high quality recycling, while working with occupiers to change behaviours and increase the use of reusable alternatives to disposable products. Sustainable procurement strategies can also help to mandate the use of fixtures and fittings with high recycled content, or designed with end of life disassembly and reuse in mind. The idea of servitisation should also be considered. This is the use of a product as a service, which avoids the need to purchase lighting, flooring or other building components. Leasing rather than ownership allows equipment to be replaced, upgraded, repurposed and, most importantly, reused multiple times. For new developments, in addition to the above, there is also the opportunity to design circularity in to the building itself. Everything from using recycled construction materials, to designing for end of life recovery in order to reuse various components can be factored in at the design stage. There is also the opportunity to account for flexibility and adaptability in order to sustainably respond to changing market conditions and working practices. While recycling may seem like an obvious step to tackling climate change, we shouldn’t waste either the opportunity or the materials to make a significant difference.
Why real estate has an important role to play in Recycle Week 2021
With more transparency around ESG credentials (in the form of the financial disclosures –see our note on TCFD), and GRESB, we may see a fresh take on what green really looks like. The increased disclosure should help eliminate greenwashing, and provide clarity on what developers need to do. Historically the ‘E’ in ESG hasfocused on the energy efficiency of buildings, measured through EPC’s and BREEAM but this is evolving to include a more in depth review of the efficiency of buildings in use and the climate resilience of individual buildings and portfolios. Broadly speaking the current ratings and accreditations in the market fall into two main categories and are either company focused, benchmarking to assess the sustainability of housebuilders, or building and community focused, providing tools to assess health and well-being or digital technologies etc.
ESG accreditations
•Company focused -benchmarking to assess the sustainability of housebuilders(e.g. Next Generation), or measuring, scoring and benchmarking ESG performance data (GRESB and B Corp), or •Building and Community focused–providing tools to assess and advance health and well-being in communities (Well Community), or assessing, certifying and improving digital technologies in buildings (WiredScore).
But what about providing accreditations that are really easy for buyers to understand? Cyclingscore, WiredScore and HomeViews have tapped into this need and recognised the requirement for buyers moving into new build residentialto review the things that really matter to them in their day to day lives. We expect more of these type of accreditations to enter the market over the coming months and years. However, even with these new buyer-focused ESG ratings house builders remain confused about what accreditations are most suitable and therefore key to focus on and adapt their projects accordingly. Is there the opportunity for more clarity on ESG within the property market? Is now the time for an all-encompassing accreditation that provides a holistic approach to the ESG principles of individual developments that is easily understood by developers and digestible and relevant for buyers as well? Such an accreditation would be an opportunity to recognise and showcase developers who are championing the sustainability agenda and helping to influence those that are failing to appreciate and act on this shift in buyer demand and market sentiment. We all know there is an ever increasing focus on sustainability within the industry with the introduction of such initiatives as the Ten Point Plan, Future Homes Standard and Environment Bill and it’s very positive that developers are starting to be incentivised to build more sustainably through Green Development Loans and the opportunity of Green Mortgages for buyers. That being said there is still a great deal that needs to be done if the UK is ever going to hit the ambitious carbon zero targets of a 78% reduction in emissions by 2035 and net zero emissions by 2050. Perhaps more clarity and an improvement in the available ESG accreditations can prove a great catalyst and driver for change.
Recycle week
Accreditations
The Team
We have had both cats and dogs in the past but now I quite like the freedom of not having to worry about who is looking after them when away
Meet our Team: Q&A with Ed Lewis, Head of London Residential Development Sales
Thanks to 230 experts spread across 24 teams we cover all of the UK, launching developments both off-plan and on the open market. With tens of thousands of applicants registered to buy new-build property in the UK (and with the help of our international desks for the Middle East, China, India and Russia), we are confident that we can maximise visibility of your development to a global market – and secure a successful transaction on your behalf. Our specialist international sales and marketing professionals advise developers of all sizes, helping them to target buyers of new-build property around the globe via our network of over 600 offices. This includes guidance on international marketing best practice and regulations, hosting sales events, and the analysis of global buyer behaviour.
Interviewer
Andrew Hawkins Director, International ahakwins@savills.com
Annie Johnson Associate annie.johnson@savills.com
Charlotte Kennedy PA & Department Co-ordinator charlotte.kennedy@savills.com
Edward Lewis Head of London Residential Development Sales elewis@savills.com
Genevieve Mayoh Associate genevieve.mayoh@savills.com
Harri Williams-Jones Associate Director hwjones@savills.com
Hassan Basma Associate Director Middle East Desk hassan.basma@savills.com
Katie Siese Associate ksiese@savills.com
Lin Liu Associate lliu@savills.com
Liz Ward Sales & Marketing Coordinator eward@savills.com
Madeleine Maguire Associate mmaguire@savills.com
Maria Eivers Associate Director meivers@savills.com
Ned Baring Director, Super Prime nbaring@savills.com
Nick Vaughan Head of Mainstream, West & East – Sales & Marketing nvaughan@savills.com
Nina Coulter UK Board Director ncoulter@savills.com
Otto Twist Associate Director otwist@savills.com
Richard Osborne-Young Director, Super Prime royoung@savills.com
Rose Fyfe Associate rfyfe@savills.com
Sophie Rosier Director srosier@savills.com
Tor Jones-Davies Director, Product Delivery tjonesdavies@savills.com
Alexandra Cook Senior Sales consultant alexandra.cook@savills.com
Benjamin Hobart Director Head of Hackney Wick Office ben.hobart@savills.com
Carla McInrue Associate carla.mcinrue@savills.com
Danny Bradley Sales Negotiator danny.bradley@savills.com
James Stuart-Mogg Sales Negotiator jsmogg@savills.com
Gaby Foord Research Analyst gaby.foord@savills.com
Jeremy James Sales Director jjames@savills.com
Jo Mantzaridis Office co-ordinator & PA to Benjamin Hobart jo.mantzaridis@savills.com
Laura Moore Senior Sales Negotiator laura.moore@savills.com
Katy Warrick Head of London Residential Development Research KWarrick@savills.com
Lindsay Gill Associate Director lgill@savills.com
Lucy Chitty Head of Shared Ownership lucy.chitty@savills.com
Sascha Moore Development Consultant sascha.moore@savills.com
Sophie Etheridge Associate setheridge@savills.com
Theo Gordon Associate Director thgordon@savills.com
Ed Lewis
Are you a dog person or a cat person (or neither)?
Do you have a hidden talent? What is it?
Absolutely no hidden talents, what you see is what you get
If you could only eat one item for every meal for the rest of your life, what would it be?
Minestrone soup
If you could only have three apps on your smartphone, which would you pick?
I don’t think I even have three anyway. British Airways for travel, Nat West to pay for the travel, and the City Luxe guide to tell me what to do when I am there.
What’s one item you can’t leave your house or apartment without?
A plan, I like to know where I am going
What’s one item you want to own that you don’t?
A ski chalet in Val-d'Isère
What’s the top destination on your must-visit list?
Venice, still haven’t got there. We were close in October with suitcases packed but the Italian government changed their travel guidance and we pulled out 3 hours before take off.
What fictional place would you most like to visit?
Utopia
What’s your most hated household chore?
Try and avoid ironing shirts, the local dry cleaner is money well spent
Tom Mann Director, Product Delivery tmann@savills.com
Tom Stevenson Head of New Homes East London - Canary Wharf tstevenson@savills.com
Wai Kit Chan Sales Negotiator wai.chan@savills.com
Wei Jing Sales Negotiator wei.jing@savills.com
Sophie Williamson Team Co-ordinator sophie.williamson@savills.com
Sophie Illingworth Surveyor sillingworth@savills.com
Ray Chen Associate ray.chen@savills.com
Sam Powell Sales Negotiator spowell@savills.com
Oksana d’Offay Associate Director oksana.doffay@savills.com
Nadia Shakor PA & Team Co-ordinator nadia.shakor@savills.com
Hamish Wilson Associate hamish.wilson@savills.com
Jack Pearce Associate Director Jack.Pearce@savills.com
James Paterson Sales Negotiator james.paterson@savills.com
Flavia Robinson Sales Negotiator frobinson@savills.com
Dan Martin Associate Director dan.martin@savills.com
Amy Clover Associate Director amy.clover@savills.com
Amy Davis Associate Director adavis@savills.com
Chris Rees-Williams Associate Director crwilliams@savills.com
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Mayfair Park Residences, mayfair, W1K 1AG
Situated adjacent to one of Dorchester Collection’s world-renowned hotels, 45 Park Lane, is Clivedale London’s Mayfair Park Residences, an exclusive collection of 24 residences in the form of apartments, townhouses and a penthouse, all fully serviced by Dorchester Collection. This is the first time Dorchester Collection has lent its name to a residential development. Mayfair Park Residences has been designed to offer a level of amenities previously unseen in any residential development in London. Residents will enjoy access to a 10,000 sq ft Health Club with a state-of-the-art-gym, 20m heated swimming pool, sauna, steam room, hydrotherapy pool, treatment rooms and a residents’ lounge, all fully staffed by Dorchester Collection. With Five-star amenities and in-house services delivered by the adjoining Dorchester Collection London hotel, 45 Park Lane, this is the ultimate in sophisticated city living, for those who insist on the very best of everything. Prices from £4,250,000
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Sarah Peck
apartment - 22 CUMBERLAND TERRACE, NW1 4HP
Stephen Lindsay
An exceptional, first floor balconied apartment, located in the prestigious Cumberland Terrace, offering outstanding views of Regent’s Park and the Terrace's private gardens. The apartment benefits from triple aspect, and is finished to a high standard with every detail taken care of. The apartment comprises of an entrance hall, separate large dining room and separate large reception room, joined by a glass door. There is a kitchen with breakfast room, master bedroom with en-suite bathroom, second large bedroom, third large bedroom, forth single bedroom/study and a guest shower and toilet. The apartment further benefits from a large service/laundry room with internal service lift. The principal rooms face the park. The apartment has a garage and storage room and additional parking front and rear and enjoys 24-hour porterage. Price: £7,250,000
House - 4 Wildwood Road, NW116uj
A spectacular family residence surrounded by Hampstead Heath and Turner’s Wood offering 15,400 sf on a wide 0.6 acre plot. Luxurious living, scale and proportion, attention to detail. Extensive lateral layout with four entertaining rooms, a Great Hall and family kitchen. Seven en-suite bedrooms. Leisure facilities set around a courtyard. Beautiful landscaped gardens with a woodland aspect. Price: £23,950,000
Aldgate Lodge, ketton, rutland PE9 3TD
Aldgate Lodge is a large imposing village house in the highly sought after and pretty village of Ketton in the county of Rutland. The current owners have spent considerable time and effort to bring the house firmly into the 21st century and the property is excellently presented both inside and out. Price: £3,850,000
Tim Phillips
Dane court, chelmsford, CM3 4NW
Dane Court is a substantial house constructed about 15 years ago designed and orientated to overlook its own grounds with far-reaching views towards the Crouch Valley and beyond. It occupies a beautiful and private location, which is approached through an electric-gated entrance with substantial brick piers off an unmade woodland track. Price: £4,250,000
Spectacular South facing apartment facing the Louvre Museum has benefited from an exceptional renovation, with perfectly maintained common areas and a remarkable reception. Excellently planned with rare ceiling heights of 4.50m.
Res Dev News
Please see the graph below showing the Heathrow passenger numbers from January 2019 – Sept 2020
• There were 95 £5m+ sales in Q3 2020 (new build and second hand). • This was more than twice the number seen in Q2 2020 when the market was mostly in lockdown.
• Despite lockdown, year to date the number of £5m+ transactions is 12% higher than the same period last year – mostly due to this strong recovery in Q3. • There were 14 new build £5m+ sales in Q3, representing 15% of all sales.
• Data from LonRes shows that there were 116 £1m+ transactions across PCL in September. This is slightly above the 113 seen in August. During September, transactions for this part of the market were running at around 90% of the levels seen on average in the past 5 years.
• But it was also 76% higher than the number of sales in Q3 2019, and 28% higher than Q3 2018 – signifying strong recovery in the market this quarter.
Half of buyers could miss out on stamp duty holiday from next week
Will China be the only G20 economy to grow this year?
Spotlight: Branded Residences - 2020
TwentyCi have analysed the average length of time for house sales to progress to exchange in light of the recent rise in market demand. This to assess the likelihood of buyers completing before the end of the stamp duty holiday on March 31st 2021. The chart below indicates an increase in time to progress sales following lockdown, to a peak of 114 days in June, compared to an average timescale of 95 days for 2019. Although average timescales fell in August due to a comparatively low level of exchanges, they are anticipated to rise following a record number of Q3 sales agreed this year, a 53% rise on 2019 figures. TwentyCi argue that conveyancers and other services involved in the sale of a property (e.g local authority searches, lenders, valuers) will not be able to keep pace with this large and sustained increase in work. Allowing for the increased work-load and a 2 weeks Christmas break, they estimate that it will take on average 160 days, or 5.3 months to complete a sale. Working back from the stamp duty holiday deadline, TwentyCi assume that of the sales agreed on 22nd October, half of them will not complete in time. Pressure and calls for the government to extend the stamp duty holiday as a result of delays are building.
Katy Warrick presented this week at the Institute of Directors Property group on net zero in property. She was there to set the scene from the demand perspective – what do customers want. The other speakers were really interesting. Alan Fogarty from Cundall, Riccardo Abello from Franklin Real Asset Advisors, and Rebecca Self from South Pole (one technical expert and two people commenting from the investment perspective).
The Chinese economy grew 4.9% between July and September, according to government data, as China becomes the first major economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The year-on-year expansion, while slightly lower than analyst expectations, represents a dramatic reversal from the first quarter of this year when the economy shrunk by 6.8%. China’s central bank governor, Yi Gang, has said that officials predict annual growth of about 2.0%. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to contract by 4.4%, according to the International Monetary Fund, the steepest downturn since the Great Depression. Latest Chinese data shows that industrial production in September rose 6.9% compared to the same period last year while retail sales were up 3.3%. Auto sales for the month also increased 12.8% while domestic air travel exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending has also begun to pick up again, illustrated by a resurgence in tourism during a week-long public holiday in October known as Golden Week (The Guardian).
current MARKET INTEL
• With new regional lockdown measures being introduced at the start of the week, Oxford Economics have revised their GDP forecasts, now expecting GDP to fall by 10.3% in 2020 (up from -9.5%), before recovering to grow by 6.7% in 2021 (down from 8.3%). The full note is attached. • In our new Prime Market in Minutes we’ve updated our prime forecasts for both sales and rents. The new forecasts can be found in the attached PDFs – please do share with clients. • The latest UK Housing Market Update shows house prices rising by 0.9% in September, taking annual growth up to a scrumptious 5.0% - the strongest level since September 2016. • Banks are resisting government pressure to rush back into riskier areas of the mortgage market, in spite of Boris Johnson’s recent announcement. According to executives at several large banks, banks are unlikely to offer many 95% LTV loans, citing a bleak economic outlook and rising unemployment as reasons. • Mortgage approvals across the UK in August were at their highest monthly level for nearly 13 years, fuelled by the stamp duty holiday and low interest rates.
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• Number of homes sold within 7 days up 125%. More sellers are finding a buyer within a week of putting their home up for sale than at any time in the past ten years. Rightmove reported a 125% jump in homes sold subject to contract within seven days of coming to market compared with last year (The Guardian)
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Visitors, reservations and house prices show signs of recovery
The latest Home Builders Federation’s survey shows that July’s new homes reservations were up strongly on a year ago with site visitors almost returning to the same level as July 2019. House prices in July this year were 1.5% up on the same period last year according to Nationwide’s newly released house price data. These metrics give a positive outlook for the housing market off the back of the halt caused by lockdown.
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Our prime London Market in Minutes was published earlier this week, and can be found here. It shows a significant recover in activity levels in the prime markets of London since reopening on 13th May, and includes our updated 5-year forecasts for PCL and outer prime London.
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Our Housing Market Update for July has been released, discussing the latest indicators in the market. New instructions, new buyer enquiries and numbers of sales agreed all saw strong rebounds.
• Listen here to the CapitalRise podcast featuring Katy Warrick from Savills Research • Please see here for a new guide to stamp duty for buyers. • The UK economy rebounded slower than expected in May, growing 1.8% from the previous month, following contractions of 6.9% and 20.4% in March and April respectively. Manufacturing and construction grew by more than 8% during the month. • Plans have been announced to power London’s entire tube network from renewable electricity within the next decade, to be purchased from wind and solar farms. TfL is currently one of the UK’s largest consumers of electricity, with its annual power usage equivalent to that used by roughly 12% of all households in the capital.
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• Please read The latest Savills Prime Residential Spotlight • Rishi Sunak is set to snub City of London calls for a new state-owned body that would refinance tens of billions of pounds of coronavirus loans issued to UK companies. • UK mortgage lending accelerated in July, the latest sign of a post-lockdown bounce-back in the housing market. Mortgage approvals jumped to 66,300 from just under 40,000 in June and seven times higher than their coronavirus pandemic low of barely more than 9,000 in May. • Our latest client survey was published this week which included insight from 1,400 registered buyers and sellers. The survey revealed greater urgency in the desire to move than an earlier survey mid-lockdown. Demand is driven by a desire for the right home to suit new lifestyle expectations, with more space being the key driver. This suggests that Covid-19 will leave a lasting impression on the market. • The UK economy expanded for the third consecutive month in July. GDP grew by 6.6% for the month of July. While, the economy is on the road to recovery, the UK economy is still 11.7% smaller than it was in February. • Barclays has pulled its riskier mortgage products after coming close to their high risk lending limit due to the popularity mortgage products at 5.5 times income in the post lockdown period. Barclays has lowered its LTI multiples to a maximum of 4.49 up to 90% LTV. Brokers fear that this may be a sign of things to come from other lenders. • Capco has exchanged contracts to sell an island site in Covent Garden to APG. The site is formed of six properties providing 66,000 sqft of space. • Earlier this week the Government announced a number of changes to the structure of Shared Ownership. Lawrence has written a blog on how these changes might affect affordability moving forward. • The Green Homes Grant announced back in July aims to upgrade 600,000 homes by covering energy-saving home improvements. In this note, Nicholas and Sophie discuss whether this initiative would result in a rise the country’s average EPC rating.
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GVA in July 12% below February 2020 but variation by sector
GVA has recovered as lockdown has eased with GVA rising from 26% below February 2020 in April to 12% below February 2020 in July 2020. Some sectors have recovered better than others, with Wholesale and retail GVA, the second largest contributor to total GVA, now equalling February 2020. Despite rising considerably between April and July, Accommodation and food service GVA in July was only 40% of February 2020.
Source: ONS
Source: HBF, Nationwide
